Gartner, a research company, predicts that by 2021 most of the blockchain technology implemented today could be obsolete. This is due to a fragmented market and the fact that the community has “unrealistic expectations”.
Blockchain Platforms Will Need Replacement
As the Gartner report explains, most of the Blockchain implementations today will soon need a replacement. This could happen by 2021, as the enterprise interest in blockchain will only rise. Due to this rise in interest, it is suspected that so will the number of new Blockchain-related vendors.
“Blockchain platforms are emerging platforms and, at this point, nearly indistinguishable in some cases from core blockchain technology,” says Adrian Lee, the senior research director at Gartner.
Also, Gartner suggests that by 2021, most of the current blockchain implementations could be obsolete.
The Blockchain Market is Fragmented
The report explains that today the blockchain market is quite fragmented because of the fact that in most of the cases, blockchain use is mainly done in a “complementary fashion”. Putting it in simplified words – blockchain enterprises still don’t know how to sell their newly implemented blockchain solutions. They usually advertise it with such words as “fast transactions”, “secure”, and “security”, but Gartner suggests that the consumers are still quite confused about what exactly these features improve and what benefits does blockchain add to their existing services.
Moreover, Adrian Lee suggests that the current individual blockchain environment will change as he believes that there won’t be a single dominant blockchain platform:
“Due to the lack of an industry consensus on product concept, feature set, core application requirements, and target market, we do not expect there to be a single dominant blockchain platform within the next five years. Instead, we expect a multiplatform world to emerge,” he writes.
Blockchain Evolution is Around the Corner
Gartner even plays around with predictions about the future blockchain market value. They believe that by 2025, the business added value by blockchain will grow up to $176 billion. In addition to this, they calculated that later the value could surge even up to $3.1 billion by 2030. Those are shockingly high numbers, but I guess we all knew this already before Gartner, but couldn’t put it down in numbers, right? Adrian Lee believes that we will see rapid growth in blockchain tech, and it is just around the corner:
“Product managers should prepare for rapid evolution, early obsolescence, a shifting competitive landscape, future consolidation of offerings and the potential failure of early-stage technologies/functionality in the blockchain platform market,” says Lee.
We Will Experience a Technological Revolution
While we still have time until 2021 or even 2025, this rapid growth and fragmentation seem somewhat logical, if we compare the evolution of blockchain to the evolution of the internet. The Internet has seen significant growth in the past couple of decades, so why wouldn’t blockchain? Some 90s kids remember how it used to be when they needed to connect to the internet using Dial-up. Blockchain along with cryptocurrencies is at its early stage and some people even compare it to the time when the internet was only coming out in the 80s. So we still have a long way to go, but the good news is that you are still very early in this technological and financial revolution that the world is about to witness.
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